{
  "meta": {
    "generated_at": "2026-05-13T00:00:00Z",
    "source": "computenav.com",
    "license": "CC BY 4.0"
  },
  "indicators": [
    {
      "id": "nvidia-dc-revenue",
      "label": "NVIDIA Data Center Revenue",
      "group": "supply",
      "confidence": "high",
      "chart": "bar",
      "unit": "USD billions",
      "frequency": "quarterly",
      "source_name": "NVIDIA Earnings",
      "source_url": "https://investor.nvidia.com",
      "methodology": "NVIDIA reports data center segment revenue quarterly, covering GPU sales to cloud providers and enterprises. This is the most reliable leading indicator of global AI compute supply expansion.",
      "gcpi_note": "Rising NVIDIA DC revenue signals GPU supply expansion, which typically precedes downward pressure on GCPI inference prices 1–2 quarters later.",
      "series": [
        { "date": "2024-Q2", "value": 10.32 },
        { "date": "2024-Q3", "value": 14.51 },
        { "date": "2024-Q4", "value": 18.96 },
        { "date": "2025-Q1", "value": 22.6 },
        { "date": "2025-Q2", "value": 26.3 },
        { "date": "2025-Q3", "value": 30.8 },
        { "date": "2025-Q4", "value": 35.6 },
        { "date": "2026-Q1", "value": 39.1 }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "amd-dc-revenue",
      "label": "AMD Data Center Revenue",
      "group": "supply",
      "confidence": "high",
      "chart": "bar",
      "unit": "USD billions",
      "frequency": "quarterly",
      "source_name": "AMD Earnings (SEC 8-K)",
      "source_url": "https://ir.amd.com",
      "methodology": "AMD Data Center segment revenue reported quarterly. Includes EPYC server CPUs and Instinct GPU accelerators. Q2 2025 was impacted by ~$800M inventory charge from US export controls on MI308 GPUs to China.",
      "gcpi_note": "Rising AMD DC revenue signals GPU supply diversification away from NVIDIA monopoly, which increases competitive pressure and supports GCPI price floor compression.",
      "series": [
        { "date": "2024-Q1", "value": 2.34 },
        { "date": "2024-Q2", "value": 2.8 },
        { "date": "2024-Q3", "value": 3.55 },
        { "date": "2024-Q4", "value": 3.86 },
        { "date": "2025-Q1", "value": 3.7 },
        { "date": "2025-Q2", "value": 3.2 },
        { "date": "2025-Q3", "value": 4.3 },
        { "date": "2025-Q4", "value": 5.4 },
        { "date": "2026-Q1", "value": 5.8 }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "aws-capex",
      "label": "AWS Capital Expenditure",
      "group": "supply",
      "confidence": "high",
      "chart": "bar",
      "unit": "USD billions (annual)",
      "frequency": "annual",
      "source_name": "Amazon Earnings",
      "source_url": "https://ir.aboutamazon.com",
      "methodology": "Amazon company-reported annual capital expenditure (property and equipment including data centers, servers, and networking). Leading indicator for cloud infrastructure scale 12–18 months ahead.",
      "gcpi_note": "AWS remains the largest absolute CapEx pool among hyperscalers; compare growth rate to Azure and GCP to see competitive acceleration.",
      "series": [
        { "date": "2022", "value": 52.7 },
        { "date": "2023", "value": 48.4 },
        { "date": "2024", "value": 75.0 },
        { "date": "2025", "value": 131.0 },
        { "date": "2026E", "value": 200.0 }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "azure-capex",
      "label": "Azure Capital Expenditure",
      "group": "supply",
      "confidence": "high",
      "chart": "bar",
      "unit": "USD billions (annual)",
      "frequency": "annual",
      "source_name": "Microsoft Earnings",
      "source_url": "https://investor.microsoft.com",
      "methodology": "Microsoft company-reported annual capital expenditure. Interpret 2026E cautiously: roughly $25B of the total reflects memory and component price inflation passed through as higher hardware costs, not solely incremental new data-center capacity versus prior plans.",
      "gcpi_note": "Azure CapEx growth includes both capacity for Azure and AI services and a material inflation-linked step-up in server component pricing — pair with AWS and GCP bars to judge relative build-out intensity.",
      "series": [
        { "date": "2022", "value": 23.9 },
        { "date": "2023", "value": 32.3 },
        { "date": "2024", "value": 55.7 },
        { "date": "2025", "value": 63.0 },
        { "date": "2026E", "value": 190.0 }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "gcp-capex",
      "label": "GCP Capital Expenditure",
      "group": "supply",
      "confidence": "high",
      "chart": "bar",
      "unit": "USD billions (annual)",
      "frequency": "annual",
      "source_name": "Alphabet Earnings",
      "source_url": "https://investor.abc.xyz",
      "methodology": "Alphabet company-reported annual capital expenditure for Google Services and Cloud (data centers, servers, networking). 2026E uses the midpoint of public guidance (~$180–190B); management also cites a large multi-year cloud backlog (~$460B contracted) that supports continued build-out.",
      "gcpi_note": "GCP has posted the fastest CapEx growth rate among the three; strong backlog signals sustained AI and cloud capacity investment ahead.",
      "series": [
        { "date": "2022", "value": 31.5 },
        { "date": "2023", "value": 32.3 },
        { "date": "2024", "value": 52.5 },
        { "date": "2025", "value": 91.0 },
        { "date": "2026E", "value": 185.0 }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "huggingface-downloads",
      "label": "Hugging Face Monthly Downloads",
      "group": "demand",
      "confidence": "high",
      "unit": "billions of downloads",
      "frequency": "monthly",
      "source_name": "Hugging Face",
      "source_url": "https://huggingface.co",
      "methodology": "Total monthly model downloads from Hugging Face Hub. Proxies open-source inference demand, which represents self-hosted and API compute consumption outside major providers.",
      "gcpi_note": "Rapid growth in HF downloads signals rising open-source inference demand, which competes with API providers and exerts downward pressure on GCPI prices.",
      "series": [
        { "date": "2025-11", "value": 8.2 },
        { "date": "2025-12", "value": 9.1 },
        { "date": "2026-01", "value": 10.4 },
        { "date": "2026-02", "value": 11.8 },
        { "date": "2026-03", "value": 13.2 },
        { "date": "2026-04", "value": 14.9 }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "anthropic-arr",
      "label": "Anthropic Annualized Revenue",
      "group": "demand",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "unit": "USD billions (annualized run rate)",
      "frequency": "irregular",
      "source_name": "VentureBeat / Sacra / Company disclosure",
      "source_url": "https://sacra.com/c/anthropic/",
      "methodology": "Annualized revenue run rate from media reports and company disclosures. Not officially audited. Reported as monthly revenue × 12. Primarily driven by enterprise API consumption and Claude Code.",
      "gcpi_note": "Anthropic revenue growth reflects surging demand for Claude inference. Enterprise API calls drive ~75% of revenue, directly linked to token consumption on AWS Bedrock and Google Vertex.",
      "series": [
        { "date": "2024-Q1", "value": 0.3 },
        { "date": "2024-Q4", "value": 1.0 },
        { "date": "2025-Q2", "value": 4.0 },
        { "date": "2025-Q3", "value": 5.0 },
        { "date": "2025-Q4", "value": 9.0 },
        { "date": "2026-Q1", "value": 14.0 },
        { "date": "2026-Q2", "value": 30.0 }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "openai-revenue",
      "label": "OpenAI Revenue",
      "group": "demand",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "unit": "USD billions (annualized run rate)",
      "frequency": "irregular",
      "source_name": "The Information / Bloomberg / Epoch AI",
      "source_url": "https://epoch.ai/data/ai_companies_revenue_reports.csv",
      "methodology": "Annualized revenue run rate from media reports. Includes ChatGPT subscriptions and API revenue. Not officially audited. Source: Epoch AI revenue tracking database.",
      "gcpi_note": "OpenAI is the single largest driver of frontier model inference demand, supporting premium pricing at the top end of the GCPI price distribution.",
      "series": [
        { "date": "2023-Q4", "value": 2.0 },
        { "date": "2024-Q2", "value": 3.4 },
        { "date": "2024-Q4", "value": 5.5 },
        { "date": "2025-Q2", "value": 10.0 },
        { "date": "2025-Q4", "value": 20.0 },
        { "date": "2026-Q1", "value": 25.0 },
        { "date": "2026-Q2", "value": 30.0 }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "github-copilot-subscribers",
      "label": "GitHub Copilot Paid Subscribers",
      "group": "demand",
      "confidence": "high",
      "chart": "bar",
      "unit": "millions of paid subscribers",
      "frequency": "quarterly",
      "source_name": "Microsoft Earnings (Satya Nadella)",
      "source_url": "https://investor.microsoft.com",
      "methodology": "Paid subscriber count reported by Microsoft CEO on quarterly earnings calls. High confidence — direct company disclosure. Represents the largest single AI coding tool deployment globally.",
      "gcpi_note": "Copilot subscriber growth is a leading indicator of developer-facing inference demand. Each paid seat generates continuous API calls, driving token consumption at scale.",
      "series": [
        { "date": "2024-Q1", "value": 1.3 },
        { "date": "2024-Q2", "value": 1.8 },
        { "date": "2024-Q4", "value": 1.8 },
        { "date": "2025-Q2", "value": 2.7 },
        { "date": "2026-Q1", "value": 4.7 }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "nvidia-china-share",
      "label": "NVIDIA China Revenue Share",
      "group": "geopolitical",
      "confidence": "high",
      "chart": "line",
      "unit": "percent of total revenue",
      "frequency": "annual",
      "source_name": "NVIDIA Annual Report",
      "source_url": "https://investor.nvidia.com",
      "methodology": "NVIDIA discloses geographic revenue breakdown annually. China share has declined sharply since US export controls began in October 2022. FY2026 data based on headquarters-based revenue reporting. NVIDIA fiscal year ends in January (e.g. FY2026 = Feb 2025 through Jan 2026).",
      "gcpi_note": "Declining China share directly reflects export control impact on GPU supply to the world's second-largest AI market, contributing to elevated GCPI Geopolitical Risk Premium.",
      "series": [
        { "date": "FY2022", "value": 26 },
        { "date": "FY2023", "value": 22 },
        { "date": "FY2024", "value": 17 },
        { "date": "FY2025", "value": 13 },
        { "date": "FY2026", "value": 9 }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "token-throughput-index",
      "label": "Token Throughput Index (TTI)",
      "group": "derived",
      "confidence": "derived",
      "unit": "index (2025-Q1 = 100)",
      "frequency": "quarterly",
      "source_name": "ComputeNav / GCPI Research",
      "source_url": "https://globalcomputeindex.org",
      "methodology": "Composite index derived from NVIDIA DC revenue (40%), Hugging Face downloads (30%), and combined hyperscaler AI revenue (30%). Measures relative growth in global token throughput. Base period: 2025-Q1 = 100.",
      "gcpi_note": "TTI measures the demand side of the compute market. Combined with GCPI price data, TTI enables analysis of price elasticity: how much does demand grow for each 1% price decrease?",
      "series": [
        { "date": "2025-Q1", "value": 100 },
        { "date": "2025-Q2", "value": 118 },
        { "date": "2025-Q3", "value": 142 },
        { "date": "2025-Q4", "value": 171 },
        { "date": "2026-Q1", "value": 204 }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "hyperscaler-capex-combined",
      "label": "Hyperscaler CapEx Combined",
      "group": "derived",
      "confidence": "derived",
      "chart": "bar",
      "unit": "USD billions (annual)",
      "frequency": "annual",
      "source_name": "ComputeNav (sum)",
      "source_url": "https://computenav.com",
      "methodology": "Computed sum of the AWS, Azure, and GCP annual CapEx series in this dataset (same calendar labels as each vendor chart). For vendor-specific nuance (e.g. inflation vs capacity in Microsoft figures), read each company series separately.",
      "gcpi_note": "Aggregate hyperscaler scale for AI and cloud capacity; use the per-cloud bars to see who is pulling the total up or holding baseline share.",
      "series": [
        { "date": "2022", "value": 108.1 },
        { "date": "2023", "value": 113.0 },
        { "date": "2024", "value": 183.2 },
        { "date": "2025", "value": 285.0 },
        { "date": "2026E", "value": 575.0 }
      ]
    }
  ]
}